UPDATE: On July 20, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its estimate of the revised legislation, EXCEPT for the “consumer freedom” provisions included in Title III of the revised draft. Important nuggets from the CBO score:
- The bill overall would save $420 billion—an increase of $99 billion from the prior draft—largely due to the elimination of the repeal of two Obamacare “high-income” taxes (retains $231 billion in revenue). That higher revenue is offset in part by $39 billion more spending on substance abuse grants, $51 billion in additional Stability Fund spending (with the additional $19 billion authorized being spent after 2026), an $8 billion home and community-based services demonstration in Medicaid, and $5 billion in changes to Medicaid block grants and per capita caps for states with designated health emergencies.
- The bill would reduce spending on traditional Medicaid by much less than spending on Medicaid expansion to the able-bodied, as outlined in a new chart (Table 3) not previously included in any prior CBO estimates. Over ten years (2017-2026), the bill would reduce spending on traditional Medicaid compared to current law by $164 billion, or about 4%. The bill would reduce spending on Medicaid expansion by $575 billion, or about 59%. In 2026, the final year of the budget window, the bill would reduce spending on traditional populations by $43 billion, or 9%, while reducing spending on expansion populations by $117 billion, or 87%.
- Coverage estimates are largely unchanged—a reduction of 15 million insured in 2018, 19 million in 2020, and 22 million in 2026. These numbers include 1) several million people who would not enroll in Medicaid due to the repeal of the individual mandate and 2) several million people not covered under Medicaid now, but whom CBO estimates would be covered in the future, because CBO believes more states will choose to expand Medicaid in future years under current law.
- Premium estimates are slightly changed later in the decade—a 20 percent increase compared to current law in 2018, a 10 percent increase in 2019, and a 30 percent decrease in 2020 (all unchanged), but a 25 percent decrease (up from 20 percent in the prior draft) compared to current law by 2026, due to additional federal taxpayer dollars being provided to the Stability Fund.
- Under the bill, CBO estimates that a person with income at 175 percent of the poverty level ($21,105 for an individual in 2017) would pay less for insurance ($1,450, compared to $1,700 under Obamacare), but more in cost-sharing, “contribut[ing] significantly to a decrease in the number of lower-income people” with individual market coverage.
- While the bill would lower the maximum income at which people qualify for subsidies from 400 to 350 percent of poverty, CBO believes that “for many single policyholders with income at either 375 percent or 450 percent of the [federal poverty level], net premiums would be somewhat lower under the legislation…in part because of the tax savings resulting from the use of health savings accounts.” However, CBO did not provide a separate estimate on the tax savings associated with the new provision to allow individuals to use HSA funds to pay for high-deductible health plan premiums.
- CBO believes that the bill would create cross-pressuring forces between deductibles and actuarial value. While the bill links subsidies to a plan with an actuarial value (estimated percentage of average health expenses paid) of 58 percent (down from 70 percent under Obamacare), CBO notes that for the essential health benefits included in Obamacare, “all plans must pay for most of the cost of high-cost services….Hence, to design a plan with an actuarial value of 58 percent and pay for required high-cost services, insurers must set high deductibles.”
- CBO believes that under the bill, deductibles for single coverage would total $13,000 in 2026—higher than the projected limit on out-of-pocket costs under Obamacare ($10,900) in that year. Therefore, “CBO and [the Joint Committee on Taxation] estimate that a plan with a deductible equal to the limit on out-of-pocket spending in 2026 would have an actuarial value of 62 percent. A percent enrolled in such a plan would pay for all health care costs (except for preventive care) until the deductible was met, and none thereafter until the end of the year.”
- CBO believes the high deductibles—which would exceed annual income for some people below the poverty level, and half and a quarter of income for individuals at 175 and 375 percent of poverty—will discourage enrollment by individuals of low and modest income. It is worth noting however that the analysis of deductibles and cost-sharing did NOT take into account “any cost-sharing reductions that might be implemented through the State Stability and Innovation Program.”
Original post follows below, with budgetary estimates changed to reflect the newer CBO score…
On July 13, Senate leadership issued a revised draft of their Obamacare “repeal-and-replace” bill, the Better Care Reconciliation Act. Changes to the bill include:
- Modifies the current language (created in last year’s 21st Century Cures Act) allowing small businesses of under 50 employees to reimburse employees’ individual health insurance through Health Reimbursement Arrangements;
- Allows Obamacare subsides to be used for catastrophic insurance plans previously authorized under that law;
- Amends the short-term Stability Fund, by requiring the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to reserve one percent of fund monies “for providing and distributing funds to health insurance issuers in states where the cost of insurance premiums are at least 75 percent higher than the national average”—a provision which some conservatives may view as an earmark for Alaska (the only state that currently qualifies);
- Increases appropriations for the long-term Stability Fund to $19.2 billion for each of calendar years 2022 through 2026, up from $6 billion in 2022 and 2023, $5 billion in 2024 and 2025, and $4 billion in 2026—an increase of $70 billion total;
- Strikes repeal of the Medicare tax increase on “high-income” earners, as well as repeal of the net investment tax;
- Allows for Health Savings Account funds to be used for the purchase of high-deductible health plans, but only to the extent that such insurance was not purchased on a tax-preferred basis (i.e., through the exclusion for employer-provided health insurance, or through Obamacare insurance subsidies);
- Allows HSA dollars to be used to reimburse expenses for “dependents” under age 27, effectively extending the “under-26” provisions of Obamacare to Health Savings Accounts;
- Prohibits HSA-qualified high deductible health plans from covering abortions, other than in cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother—an effective prohibition on the use of HSA funds to purchase plans that cover abortion, but one that the Senate Parliamentarian may advise does not comport with procedural restrictions on budget reconciliation bills;
- Changes the methodology for calculating Medicaid Disproportionate Share Hospital (DSH) payment reductions, such that 1) non-expansion states’ DSH reductions would be minimized for states that have below-average reductions in the uninsured (rather than below-average enrollment in Medicaid, as under the base text); and 2) provides a carve-out treating states covering individuals through a Medicaid Section 1115 waiver as non-expansion states for purposes of having their DSH payment reductions undone;
- Retains current law provisions allowing 90 days of retroactive Medicaid eligibility for seniors and blind and disabled populations, while restricting eligibility to the month an individual applied for the program for all other Medicaid populations;
- Includes language allowing late-expanding Medicaid states to choose a shorter period (but not fewer than four) quarters as their “base period” for determining per capita caps—a provision that some conservatives may view as improperly incentivizing states that decided to expand Medicaid to the able-bodied;
- Exempts declared public health emergencies from the Medicaid per capita caps—based on an increase in beneficiaries’ average expenses due to such emergency—but such exemption may not exceed $5 billion;
- Modifies the per capita cap treatment for states that expanded Medicaid during Fiscal Year 2016, but before July 1, 2016—a provision that may help states like Louisiana that expanded during the intervening period;
- Creates a four year, $8 billion demonstration project from 2020 through 2023 to expand home- and community-based service payment adjustments in Medicaid—with payment adjustments eligible for a 100 percent federal match, and the 15 states with the lowest population density given priority for funds;
- Modifies the Medicaid block grant formula, prohibits Medicaid funds from being used for other health programs (a change from the base bill), and eliminates a quality standards requirement;
- Allows for modification of the Medicaid block grant during declared public health emergencies—based on an increase in beneficiaries’ average expenses due to such emergency;
- Makes a state’s expenses on behalf of Indians eligible for a 100 percent match, irrespective of the source of those services (current law provides for a 100 percent match only for services provided at an Indian Health Service center);
- Makes technical and other changes to small business health plan language included in the base text;
- Modifies language repealing the Prevention and Public Health Fund, to allow $1.25 billion in funding for Fiscal Year 2018;
- Increases opioid funding to a total of $45 billion—$44.748 billion from Fiscal Years 2018 through 2026 for treatment of substance use or mental health disorders, and $252 million from Fiscal Years 2018 through 2022 for opioid addiction research—all of which are subject to few spending restrictions, which some conservatives may be concerned would give virtually unfettered power to the Department of Health and Human Services to direct this spending;
- Modifies language regarding continuous coverage provisions, and includes health care sharing ministries as “creditable coverage” for the purposes of imposing waiting periods;
- Grants the Secretary of Health and Human Services the authority to exempt other individuals from the continuous coverage requirement—a provision some conservatives may be concerned gives HHS excessive authority;
- Makes technical changes to the state innovation waiver program amendments included in the base bill;
- Allows all individuals to buy Obamacare catastrophic plans, beginning on January 1, 2019;
- Applies enforcement provisions to language in Obamacare allowing states to opt-out of mandatory abortion coverage;
- Allows insurers to offer non-compliant plans, so long as they continue to offer at least one gold and one silver plan subject to Obamacare’s restrictions;
- Allows non-compliant plans to eliminate requirements related to actuarial value; essential health benefits; cost-sharing; guaranteed issue; community rating; waiting periods; preventive health services (including contraception); and medical loss ratios;
- Does NOT allow non-compliant plans to waive or eliminate requirements related to a single risk pool, which some conservatives may consider both potentially unworkable—as it will be difficult to combine non-community-rated plans and community-rated coverage into one risk pool—and unlikely to achieve significant premium reductions;
- Does NOT allow non-compliant plans to waive or eliminate requirements related to annual and lifetime limits, or coverage for “dependents” under age 26—which some conservatives may view as an incomplete attempt to provide consumer freedom and choice;
- States that non-compliant coverage shall not be considered “creditable coverage” for purposes of the continuous coverage/waiting period provision;
- Allows HHS to increase the minimum actuarial value of plans above 58 percent if necessary to allow compliant plans to be continued to offered in an area where non-compliant plans are available;
- Uses $70 billion in Stability Fund dollars to subsidize high-risk individuals in states that choose the “consumer freedom” option—a provision that some conservatives may be concerned will effectively legitimize a perpetual bailout fund for insurers in connection with the “consumer freedom” option; and
- Appropriates $2 billion in funds for state regulation and oversight of non-compliant plans.
A full summary of the bill, as amended, follows below, along with possible conservative concerns where applicable. Where provisions in the bill were also included in the reconciliation bill passed by Congress early in 2016 (H.R. 3762, text available here), differences between the two versions, if any, are noted.
Of particular note: It is unclear whether this legislative language has been fully vetted with the Senate Parliamentarian. When the Senate considers budget reconciliation legislation—as it plans to do with the Obamacare “repeal-and-replace” bill—the Parliamentarian advises whether provisions are budgetary in nature and can be included in the bill (which can pass with a 51-vote simple majority), and which provisions are not budgetary in nature and must be considered separately (i.e., require 60 votes to pass).
As the bill was released prior to issuance of a full CBO score, it is entirely possible the Parliamentarian has not fully vetted this draft—which means provisions could change substantially, or even get stricken from the bill, due to procedural concerns as the process moves forward.
Revisions to Obamacare Subsidies: Modifies eligibility thresholds for the current regime of Obamacare subsidies. Under current law, households with incomes of between 100-400 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL, $24,600 for a family of four in 2017) qualify for subsidies. This provision would change eligibility to include all households with income under 350% FPL—effectively eliminating the Medicaid “coverage gap,” whereby low-income individuals (those with incomes under 100% FPL) in states that did not expand Medicaid do not qualify for subsidized insurance.
Clarifies the definition of eligibility by substituting “qualified alien” for the current-law term “an alien lawfully present in the United States” with respect to the five-year waiting period for said aliens to receive taxpayer-funded benefits, per the welfare reform law enacted in 1996.
Changes the bidding structure for insurance subsidies. Under current law, subsidy amounts are based on the second-lowest silver plan bid in a given area—with silver plans based upon an actuarial value (the average percentage of annual health expenses covered) of 70 percent. This provision would base subsidies upon the “median cost benchmark plan,” which would be based upon an average actuarial value of 58 percent.
Modifies the existing Obamacare subsidy regime, by including age as an additional factor for determining subsidy amounts. Younger individuals would have to spend a smaller percentage of income on health insurance than under current law, while older individuals would spend a higher percentage of income. For instance, an individual under age 29, making just under 350% FPL, would pay 6.4% of income on health insurance, whereas an individual between ages 60-64 at the same income level would pay 16.2% of income on health insurance. (Current law limits individuals to paying 9.69% of income on insurance, at all age brackets, for those with income just below 400% FPL.)
Lowers the “failsafe” at which secondary indexing provisions under Obamacare would apply. Under current law, if total spending on premium subsidies exceeds 0.504% of gross domestic product annually in years after 2018, the premium subsidies would grow more slowly. (Additional information available here, and a Congressional Budget Office analysis available here.) This provision would reduce the overall cap at which the “failsafe” would apply to 0.4% of GDP.
Eliminates subsidy eligibility for households eligible for employer-subsidized health insurance. Also modifies definitions regarding eligibility for subsidies for employees participating in small businesses’ health reimbursement arrangements (HRAs).
Increases penalties on erroneous claims of the credit from 20 percent to 25 percent. Applies most of the above changes beginning in calendar year 2020. Allows Obamacare subsides to be used for catastrophic insurance plans previously authorized under that law.
Beginning in 2018, changes the definition of a qualified health plan, to prohibit plans from covering abortion other than in cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother. Some conservatives may be concerned that this provision may eventually be eliminated under the provisions of the Senate’s “Byrd rule,” therefore continuing taxpayer funding of plans that cover abortion. (For more information, see these two articles.)
Eliminates provisions that limit repayment of subsidies for years after 2017. Subsidy eligibility is based upon estimated income, with recipients required to reconcile their subsidies received with actual income during the year-end tax filing process. Current law limits the amount of excess subsidies households with incomes under 400% FPL must pay. This provision would eliminate that limitation on repayments, which may result in fewer individuals taking up subsidies in the first place. Saves $25 billion over ten years—$18.7 billion in lower outlay spending, and $6.3 billion in additional revenues.
Some conservatives may be concerned first that, rather than repealing Obamacare, these provisions actually expand Obamacare—for instance, extending subsidies to some individuals currently not eligible. Some conservatives may also be concerned that, as with Obamacare, these provisions will create disincentives to work that would reduce the labor supply by the equivalent of millions of jobs. Finally, as noted above, some conservatives may believe that, as with Obamacare itself, enacting these policy changes through the budget reconciliation process will prevent the inclusion of strong pro-life protections, thus ensuring continued taxpayer funding of plans that cover abortion. When compared to Obamacare, these provisions reduce the deficit by a net of $295 billion over ten years—$238 billion in reduced outlay spending (the refundable portion of the subsidies, for individuals with no income tax liability), and $57 billion in increased revenue (the non-refundable portion of the subsidies, reducing individuals’ tax liability).
Small Business Tax Credit: Repeals Obamacare’s small business tax credit, effective in 2020. Disallows the small business tax credit beginning in 2018 for any plan that offers coverage of abortion, except in the case of rape, incest, or to protect the life of the mother—which, as noted above, some conservatives may believe will be stricken during the Senate’s “Byrd rule” review. This language is substantially similar to Section 203 of the 2015/2016 reconciliation bill, with the exception of the new pro-life language. Saves $6 billion over ten years.
Individual and Employer Mandates: Sets the individual and employer mandate penalties to zero, for all years after December 31, 2015. This language is similar to Sections 204 and 205 of the 2015/2016 reconciliation bill. The individual mandate provision cuts taxes by $38 billion, and the employer mandate provision cuts taxes by $171 billion, both over ten years.
Stability Funds: Creates two stability funds intended to stabilize insurance markets—the first giving funds directly to insurers, and the second giving funds to states. The first would appropriate $15 billion each for 2018 and 2019, and $10 billion each for 2020 and 2021, ($50 billion total) to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to “fund arrangements with health insurance issuers to address coverage and access disruption and respond to urgent health care needs within States.” Instructs the CMS Administrator to “determine an appropriate procedure for providing and distributing funds.” Does not require a state match for receipt of stability funds.
Requires the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to reserve one percent of fund monies “for providing and distributing funds to health insurance issuers in states where the cost of insurance premiums are at least 75 percent higher than the national average”—a provision which some conservatives may view as an earmark for Alaska (the only state that currently qualifies).
Creates a longer term stability fund with a total of $132 billion in federal funding—$8 billion in 2019, $14 billion in 2020 and 2021, and $19.2 billion in 2022 through 2026. Requires a state match beginning in 2022—7 percent that year, followed by 14 percent in 2023, 21 percent in 2024, 28 percent in 2025, and 35 percent in 2026. Allows the Administrator to determine each state’s allotment from the fund; states could keep their allotments for two years, but unspent funds after that point could be re-allocated to other states.
Long-term fund dollars could be used to provide financial assistance to high-risk individuals, including by reducing premium costs, “help stabilize premiums and promote state health insurance market participation and choice,” provide payments to health care providers, or reduce cost-sharing. However, all of the $50 billion in short-term stability funds—and $15 billion of the long-term funds ($5 billion each in 2019, 2020, and 2021)—must be used to stabilize premiums and insurance markets. The short-term stability fund requires applications from insurers; the long-term stability fund would require a one-time application from states.
Both stability funds are placed within Title XXI of the Social Security Act, which governs the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). While SCHIP has a statutory prohibition on the use of federal funds to pay for abortion in state SCHIP programs, it is unclear at best whether this restriction would provide sufficient pro-life protections to ensure that Obamacare plans do not provide coverage of abortion. It is unclear whether and how federal reinsurance funds provided after-the-fact (i.e., covering some high-cost claims that already occurred) can prospectively prevent coverage of abortions.
Some conservatives may be concerned first that the stability funds would amount to over $100 billion in corporate welfare payments to insurance companies; second that the funds give nearly-unilateral authority to the CMS Administrator to determine how to allocate payments among states; third that, in giving so much authority to CMS, the funds further undermine the principle of state regulation of health insurance; fourth that the funds represent a short-term budgetary gimmick—essentially, throwing taxpayer dollars at insurers to keep premiums low between now and the 2020 presidential election—that cannot or should not be sustained in the longer term; and finally that placing the funds within the SCHIP program will prove insufficient to prevent federal funding of plans that cover abortion. Spends a total of $158 billion over ten years, with additional funds to be spent after 2026.
Implementation Fund: Provides $500 million to implement programs under the bill. Costs $500 million over ten years.
Repeal of Some Obamacare Taxes: Repeals some Obamacare taxes:
- Tax on high-cost health plans (also known as the “Cadillac tax”)—but only through 2025, lowering revenues by $66 billion;
- Restrictions on use of Health Savings Accounts and Flexible Spending Arrangements to pay for over-the-counter medications, effective January 1, 2017, lowering revenues by $5.6 billion;
- Increased penalties on non-health care uses of Health Savings Account dollars, effective January 1, 2017, lowering revenues by $100 million;
- Limits on Flexible Spending Arrangement contributions, effective January 1, 2018, lowering revenues by $18.6 billion;
- Tax on pharmaceuticals, effective January 1, 2018, lowering revenues by $25.7 billion;
- Medical device tax, effective January 1, 2018, lowering revenues by $19.6 billion;
- Health insurer tax (currently being suspended), lowering revenues by $144.7 billion;
- Elimination of deduction for employers who receive a subsidy from Medicare for offering retiree prescription drug coverage, effective January 1, 2017, lowering revenues by $1.8 billion;
- Limitation on medical expenses as an itemized deduction, effective January 1, 2017, lowering revenues by $36.1 billion; and
- Tax on tanning services, effective September 30, 2017, lowering revenues by $600 million.
Health Savings Accounts: Increases contribution limits to HSAs, raising them from the current $3,400 for individuals and $6,750 for families in 2017 to the out-of-pocket maximum amounts (currently $6,550 for an individual and $13,100 for a family), effective January 2018. Allows both spouses to make catch-up contributions to the same Health Savings Account. Permits individuals who take up to 60 days to establish an HSA upon enrolling in HSA-eligible coverage to be reimbursed from their account for medical expenses. Lowers revenues by a total of $19.2 billion over ten years.
Allows for Health Savings Account funds to be used for the purchase of high-deductible health plans, but only to the extent that such insurance was not purchased on a tax-preferred basis (i.e., through the exclusion for employer-provided health insurance, or through Obamacare insurance subsidies).
Allows HSA dollars to be used to reimburse expenses for “dependents” under age 27, effectively extending the “under-26” provisions of Obamacare to Health Savings Accounts. Prohibits HSA-qualified high deductible health plans from covering abortions, other than in cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother—an effective prohibition on the use of HSA funds to purchase plans that cover abortion, but one that the Senate Parliamentarian may advise does not comport with procedural restrictions on budget reconciliation bills. No separate cost estimate provided for the revenue reduction associated with allowing HSA dollars to be used to pay for insurance premiums.
Federal Payments to States: Imposes a one-year ban on federal funds flowing to certain entities. This provision would have the effect of preventing Medicaid funding of certain medical providers, including Planned Parenthood, so long as Planned Parenthood provides for abortions (except in cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother). CBO believes this provision would save a total of $225 million in Medicaid spending, while increasing spending by $79 million over a decade, because 15 percent of Planned Parenthood clients would lose access to services, increasing the number of births in the Medicaid program by several thousand. This language is virtually identical to Section 206 of the 2015/2016 reconciliation bill. Saves $146 million over ten years.
Medicaid Expansion: The discussion draft varies significantly from the repeal of Medicaid expansion included in Section 207 of the 2015/2016 reconciliation bill. The 2015/2016 reconciliation bill repealed both elements of the Medicaid expansion—the change in eligibility allowing able-bodied adults to join the program, and the enhanced (90-100%) federal match that states received for covering them.
By contrast, the discussion draft retains eligibility for the able-bodied adult population—making this population optional for states to cover, rather than mandatory. (The Supreme Court’s 2012 ruling in NFIB v. Sebelius made Medicaid expansion optional for states.) Some conservatives may be concerned that this change represents a marked weakening of the 2015/2016 reconciliation bill language, one that will entrench a massive expansion of Medicaid beyond its original focus on the most vulnerable in society.
With respect to the Medicaid match rate, the discussion draft reduces the enhanced federal match to states—scheduled under current law as 90 percent in 2020—to 85 percent in 2021, 80 percent in 2022, and 75 percent in 2023. The regular federal match rates would apply for expansion states—defined as those that expanded Medicaid prior to March 1, 2017—beginning in 2024, and to all other states effective immediately. (In the case of states that already expanded Medicaid to able-bodied adults prior to Obamacare’s enactment, the bill provides for an 80 percent federal match for 2017 through 2023.)
The bill also repeals the requirement that Medicaid “benchmark” plans comply with Obamacare’s essential health benefits, also effective December 31, 2019. In general, the Medicaid provisions outlined above, when combined with the per capita cap provisions below, would save a net of $756 billion over ten years.
Finally, the bill repeals provisions regarding presumptive eligibility and the Community First Choice Option, eliminating a six percent increase in the Medicaid match rate for some home and community-based services. Saves $19 billion over ten years.
Some conservatives may be concerned that the language in this bill would give expansion states a strong incentive to sign up many more individuals for Medicaid over the next seven years. Some conservatives may also be concerned that, by extending the Medicaid transition for such a long period, it will never in fact go into effect.
Disproportionate Share Hospital (DSH) Allotments: Exempts non-expansion states from scheduled reductions in DSH payments in fiscal years 2021 through 2024, and provides an increase in DSH payments for non-expansion states in fiscal year 2020, based on a state’s Medicaid enrollment. Spends $26.5 billion over ten years.
Retroactive Eligibility: Effective October 2017, restricts retroactive eligibility in Medicaid to the month in which the individual applied for the program for; current law requires three months of retroactive eligibility. These changes would NOT apply to aged, blind, or disabled populations, who would still qualify for three months of retroactive eligibility. Saves $1.4 billion over ten years.
Non-Expansion State Funding: Includes $10 billion ($2 billion per year) in funding for Medicaid non-expansion states, for calendar years 2018 through 2022. States can receive a 100 percent federal match (95 percent in 2022), up to their share of the allotment. A non-expansion state’s share of the $2 billion in annual allotments would be determined by its share of individuals below 138% of the federal poverty level (FPL) when compared to non-expansion states. This funding would be excluded from the Medicaid per capita spending caps discussed in greater detail below. Spends $10 billion over ten years.
Eligibility Re-Determinations: Permits—but unlike the House bill, does not require—states, beginning October 1, 2017, to re-determine eligibility for individuals qualifying for Medicaid on the basis of income every six months, or at shorter intervals. Provides a five percentage point increase in the federal match rate for states that elect this option. No separate budgetary impact noted; included in larger estimate of coverage provisions.
Work Requirements: Permits (but does not require) states to, beginning October 1, 2017, impose work requirements on “non-disabled, non-elderly, non-pregnant” beneficiaries. States can determine the length of time for such work requirements. Provides a five percentage point increase in the federal match for state expenses attributable to activities implementing the work requirements.
States may not impose requirements on pregnant women (through 60 days after birth); children under age 19; the sole parent of a child under age 6, or sole parent or caretaker of a child with disabilities; or a married individual or head of household under age 20 who “maintains satisfactory attendance at secondary school or equivalent,” or participates in vocational education. No separate budgetary impact noted; included in larger estimate of coverage provisions.
Provider Taxes: Reduces permissible Medicaid provider taxes from 6 percent under current law to 5.8 percent in fiscal year 2021, 5.6 percent in fiscal year 2022, 5.4 percent in fiscal year 2023, 5.2 percent in fiscal year 2024, and 5 percent in fiscal year 2025 and future fiscal years. Some conservatives may view provider taxes as essentially “money laundering”—a game in which states engage in shell transactions solely designed to increase the federal share of Medicaid funding and reduce states’ share. More information can be found here. CBO believes states would probably reduce their spending in response to the loss of provider tax revenue, resulting in lower spending by the federal government. Saves $5.2 billion over ten years.
Medicaid Per Capita Caps: Creates a system of per capita spending caps for federal spending on Medicaid, beginning in fiscal year 2020. States that exceed their caps would have their federal match reduced in the following fiscal year.
The cap would include all spending on medical care provided through the Medicaid program, with the exception of DSH payments and Medicare cost-sharing paid for dual eligibles (individuals eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare). The cap would rise by medical CPI plus one percentage point annually.
While the cap would take effect in fiscal year 2020, states could choose their “base period” based on any eight consecutive quarters of expenditures between October 1, 2013 and June 30, 2017. The CMS Administrator would have authority to make adjustments to relevant data if she believes a state attempted to “game” the look-back period. Late-expanding Medicaid states can choose a shorter period (but not fewer than four) quarters as their “base period” for determining per capita caps—a provision that some conservatives may view as improperly incentivizing states that decided to expand Medicaid to the able-bodied.
Creates five classes of beneficiaries for whom the caps would apply: 1) elderly individuals over age 65; 2) blind and disabled beneficiaries; 3) children under age 19; 4) expansion enrollees (i.e., able-bodied adults enrolled under Obamacare); and 5) all other non-disabled, non-elderly, non-expansion adults (e.g., pregnant women, parents, etc.). Excludes State Children’s Health Insurance Plan enrollees, Indian Health Service participants, breast and cervical cancer services eligible individuals, and certain other partial benefit enrollees from the per capita caps. Exempts declared public health emergencies from the Medicaid per capita caps—based on an increase in beneficiaries’ average expenses due to such emergency—but such exemption may not exceed $5 billion. Modifies the per capita cap treatment for states that expanded Medicaid during Fiscal Year 2016, but before July 1, 2016—a provision that may help states like Louisiana that expanded during the intervening period.
For years before fiscal year 2025, indexes the caps to medical inflation for children, expansion enrollees, and all other non-expansion enrollees, with the caps rising by medical inflation plus one percentage point for aged, blind, and disabled beneficiaries. Beginning in fiscal year 2025, indexes the caps to overall inflation.
Includes provisions in the House bill regarding “required expenditures by certain political subdivisions.” Some conservatives may question the need to insert a parochial New York-related provision into the bill.
Provides a provision—not included in the House bill—for effectively re-basing the per capita caps. Allows the Secretary of Health and Human Services to increase the caps by between 0.5% and 2% for low-spending states (defined as having per capita expenditures 25% below the national median), and lower the caps by between 0.5% and 2% for high-spending states (with per capita expenditures 25% above the national median). The Secretary may only implement this provision in a budget-neutral manner, i.e., one that does not increase the deficit. However, this re-basing provision shall NOT apply to any state with a population density of under 15 individuals per square mile.
Requires the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to reduce states’ annual growth rate by one percent for any year in which that state “fails to satisfactorily submit data” regarding its Medicaid program. Permits HHS to adjust cap amounts to reflect data errors, based on an appeal by the state, increasing cap levels by no more than two percent. Requires new state reporting on inpatient psychiatric hospital services and children with complex medical conditions. Requires the HHS Inspector General to audit each state’s spending at least every three years.
For the period including calendar quarters beginning on October 1, 2017 through October 1, 2019, increases the federal Medicaid match for certain state expenditures to improve data recording, including a 100 percent match in some instances.
Some conservatives may note that the use of the past several years as the “base period” for the per capita caps, benefits states who expanded Medicaid to able-bodied adults under Obamacare. The most recent actuarial report on Medicaid noted that, while the actuary originally predicted that adults in the expansion population would cost less than existing populations, in reality each newly eligible enrollee cost 13.6% more than existing populations in 2016. Some states have used the 100% federal match for their expansion populations—i.e., “free money from Washington”—to raise provider reimbursement levels.
Some conservatives may therefore be concerned that the draft bill would retain the increased spending on adults in expansion states—extending the inequities caused by states that have used Obamacare’s “free money” to raise Medicaid spending while sending Washington the tab. Coupled with the expansion provisions outlined above, saves a net of $772 billion over ten years.
Home and Community-Based Services: Creates a four year, $8 billion demonstration project from 2020 through 2023 to expand home- and community-based service payment adjustments in Medicaid, with such payment adjustments eligible for a 100 percent federal match. The 15 states with the lowest population density would be given priority for funds.
Medicaid Block Grants: Creates a Medicaid block grant, called the “Medicaid Flexibility Program,” beginning in Fiscal Year 2020. Requires interested states to submit an application providing a proposed packet of services, a commitment to submit relevant data (including health quality measures and clinical data), and a statement of program goals. Requires public notice-and-comment periods at both the state and federal levels.
The amount of the block grant would total the regular federal match rate, multiplied by the target per capita spending amounts (as calculated above), multiplied by the number of expected enrollees (adjusted forward based on the estimated increase in population for the state, per Census Bureau estimates). In future years, the block grant would be increased by general inflation.
Prohibits states from increasing their base year block grant population beyond 2016 levels, adjusted for population growth, plus an additional three percentage points. This provision is likely designed to prevent states from “packing” their Medicaid programs full of beneficiaries immediately prior to a block grant’s implementation, solely to achieve higher federal payments.
Permits states to roll over block grant payments from year to year, provided that they comply with maintenance of effort requirements. Reduces federal payments for the following year in the case of states that fail to meet their maintenance of effort spending requirements, and permits the HHS Secretary to make reductions in the case of a state’s non-compliance. Requires the Secretary to publish block grant amounts for every state every year, regardless of whether or not the state elects the block grant option.
Permits block grants for a program period of five fiscal years, subject to renewal; plans with “no significant changes” would not have to re-submit an application for their block grants. Permits a state to terminate the block grant, but only if the state “has in place an appropriate transition plan approved by the Secretary.”
Imposes a series of conditions on Medicaid block grants, requiring coverage for all mandatory populations identified in the Medicaid statute, and use of the Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) standard for determining eligibility. Includes 14 separate categories of services that states must cover for mandatory populations under the block grant. Requires benefits to have an actuarial value (coverage of average health expenses) of at least 95 percent of the benchmark coverage options in place prior to Obamacare. Permits states to determine the amount, duration, and scope of benefits within the parameters listed above.
Applies mental health parity provisions to the Medicaid block grant, and extends the Medicaid rebate program to any outpatient drugs covered under same. Permits states to impose premiums, deductibles, or other cost-sharing, provided such efforts do not exceed 5 percent of a family’s income in any given year.
Requires participating states to have simplified enrollment processes, coordinate with insurance Exchanges, and “establish a fair process” for individuals to appeal adverse eligibility determinations. Allows for modification of the Medicaid block grant during declared public health emergencies—based on an increase in beneficiaries’ average expenses due to such emergency.
Exempts states from per capita caps, waivers, state plan amendments, and other provisions of Title XIX of the Social Security Act while participating in Medicaid block grants. Coupled with the expansion provisions outlined above, saves a net of $772 billion over ten years.
Performance Bonus Payments: Provides an $8 billion pool for bonus payments to state Medicaid and SCHIP programs for Fiscal Years 2023 through 2026. Allows the Secretary to increase federal matching rates for states that 1) have lower than expected expenses under the per capita caps and 2) report applicable quality measures, and have a plan to use the additional funds on quality improvement. While noting the goal of reducing health costs through quality improvement, and incentives for same, some conservatives may be concerned that this provision—as with others in the bill—gives near-blanket authority to the HHS Secretary to control the program’s parameters, power that conservatives believe properly resides outside Washington—and power that a future Democratic Administration could use to contravene conservative objectives. CBO believes that only some states will meet the performance criteria, leading some of the money not to be spent between now and 2026. Costs $3 billion over ten years.
Medicaid Waivers: Permits states to extend Medicaid managed care waivers (those approved prior to January 1, 2017, and renewed at least once) in perpetuity through a state plan amendment, with an expedited/guaranteed approval process by CMS. Requires HHS to adopt processes “encouraging States to adopt or extend waivers” regarding home and community-based services, if those waivers would improve patient access. No budgetary impact.
Coordination with States: After January 1, 2018, prohibits CMS from finalizing any Medicaid rule unless CMS and HHS 1) provide an ongoing regular process for soliciting comments from state Medicaid agencies and Medicaid directors; 2) solicit oral and written comments in advance of any proposed rule on Medicaid; and 3) respond to said comments in the preamble of the proposed rule. No budgetary impact.
Inpatient Psychiatric Services: Provides for optional state Medicaid coverage of inpatient psychiatric services for individuals over 21 and under 65 years of age. (Current law permits coverage of such services for individuals under age 21.) Such coverage would not exceed 30 days in any month or 90 days in any calendar year. In order to receive such assistance, the state must maintain its number of licensed psychiatric beds as of the date of enactment, and maintain current levels of funding for inpatient services and outpatient psychiatric services. Provides a lower (i.e., 50 percent) match for such services, furnished on or after October 1, 2018. No separate budgetary impact noted; included in larger estimate of coverage provisions.
Medicaid and Indian Health Service: Makes a state’s expenses on behalf of Indians eligible for a 100 percent match, irrespective of the source of those services. Current law provides for a 100 percent match only for services provided at an Indian Health Service center. Costs $3.5 billion over ten years.
Small Business Health Plans: Amends the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA) to allow for creation of small business health plans. Some may question whether or not this provision will meet the “Byrd rule” test for inclusion on a budget reconciliation measure. No separate budgetary impact noted; included in larger estimate of coverage provisions.
Prevention and Public Health Fund: Eliminates funding for the Obamacare prevention “slush fund,” and rescinds all unobligated balances, beginning in Fiscal Year 2019. Saves $7.9 billion over ten years.
Opioid Funding: Appropriates $45 billion—$44.748 billion from Fiscal Years 2018 through 2026 for treatment of substance use or mental health disorders, and $252 million from Fiscal Years 2018 through 2022 for opioid addiction research. The $45 billion in funds are subject to few spending restrictions, which some conservatives may be concerned would give virtually unfettered power to the Department of Health and Human Services to direct this spending. Spends $40.7 billion over ten years.
Community Health Centers: Increases funding for community health centers by $422 million for Fiscal Year 2018—money intended to offset reductions in spending on Planned Parenthood affiliates (see “Federal Payments to States” above). Language regarding community health centers was included in Section 102 of the 2015/2016 reconciliation bill. Spends $422 million over ten years.
Age Rating: Changes the maximum variation in insurance markets from 3-to-1 (i.e., insurers can charge older applicants no more than three times younger applicants) to 5-to-1 effective January 1, 2019, with the option for states to provide for other age rating requirements. Some conservatives may be concerned that, despite the ability for states to opt out, this provision, by setting a default federal standard, maintains the intrusion over insurance markets exacerbated by Obamacare. No separate budgetary impact noted; included in larger estimate of coverage provisions.
Medical Loss Ratios: Permits states to determine their own medical loss ratios, beginning for plan years on or after January 1, 2019. No separate budgetary impact noted; included in larger estimate of coverage provisions.
Insurance Waiting Periods: Imposes waiting periods on individuals lacking continuous coverage (i.e., with a coverage gap of more than 63 days). Requires carriers to, beginning with plan years starting after January 1, 2019, impose a six-month waiting period on individuals who cannot show 12 months of continuous coverage. However, the bill states that such waiting period “shall not apply to an individual who is enrolled in health insurance coverage in the individual market on the day before the effective date of the coverage in which the individual is newly enrolling.” The waiting period would extend for six months from the date of application for coverage, or the first date of the new plan year.
Permits the Department of Health and Human Services to require insurers to provide certificates of continuous coverage, and includes health care sharing ministries as “creditable coverage” for purposes of the requirement. Prohibits waiting periods for newborns and adopted children, provided they obtain coverage within 30 days of birth or adoption, and other individuals the Secretary may designate—an overly broad grant of authority that some conservatives may believe will give excessive power to federal bureaucrats.
Some conservatives may be concerned that this provision, rather than repealing Obamacare’s regulatory mandates, would further entrench a Washington-centered structure, one that has led premiums to more than double since Obamacare took effect. Some conservatives may also note that this provision will not take effect until the 2019 plan year—meaning that the effective repeal of the individual mandate upon the bill’s enactment, coupled with the continuation of Obamacare’s regulatory structure, could further destabilize insurance markets over the next 18 months. CBO believes this provision will only modestly increase the number of people with health insurance. No separate budgetary impact noted; included in larger estimate of coverage provisions.
State Innovation Waivers: Amends Section 1332 of Obamacare regarding state innovation waivers. Eliminates the requirement that states codify their waivers in state law, by allowing a Governor or State Insurance Commissioner to provide authority for said waivers. Appropriates $2 billion for Fiscal Years 2017 through 2019 to allow states to submit waiver applications, and allows states to use the long-term stability fund to carry out the plan. Allows for an expedited approval process “if the Secretary determines that such expedited process is necessary to respond to an urgent or emergency situation with respect to health insurance coverage within a State.”
Requires the HHS Secretary to approve all waivers, unless they will increase the federal budget deficit—a significant change from the Obamacare parameters, which many conservatives viewed as unduly restrictive. (For more background on Section 1332 waivers, see this article.)
Provides for a standard eight-year waiver (unless a state requests a shorter period), with automatic renewals upon application by the state, and may not be cancelled by the Secretary before the expiration of the eight-year period.
Provides that Section 1332 waivers approved prior to enactment shall be governed under the “old” (i.e., Obamacare) parameters, that waiver applications submitted after enactment shall be governed under the “new” parameters, and that states with pending (but not yet approved) applications at the time of enactment can choose to have their waivers governed under the “old” or the “new” parameters. Spends $2 billion over ten years. With respect to the fiscal impact of the waivers themselves, CBO noted no separate budgetary impact noted, including them in the larger estimate of coverage provisions.
Catastrophic Coverage: Allows all individuals to buy Obamacare catastrophic plans, beginning on January 1, 2019.
Cost-Sharing Subsidies: Repeals Obamacare’s cost-sharing subsidies, effective December 31, 2019. Appropriates funds for cost-sharing subsidy claims for plan years through 2019—a provision not included in the House bill. The House of Representatives filed suit against the Obama Administration (House v. Burwell) alleging the Administration acted unconstitutionally in spending funds on the cost-sharing subsidies without an explicit appropriation from Congress. The case is currently on hold pending settlement discussions between the Trump Administration and the House. Some conservatives may view the appropriation first as likely to get stricken under the “Byrd rule,” and second as a budget gimmick—acknowledging that Obamacare did NOT appropriate funds for the payments by including an appropriation for 2017 through 2019, but then relying on over $100 billion in phantom “savings” from repealing the non-existent “appropriation” for years after 2020. Saves $105 billion over ten years.
“Consumer Freedom” Option: Allows insurers to offer non-compliant plans, so long as they continue to offer at least one gold and one silver plan subject to Obamacare’s restrictions. Allows non-compliant plans to eliminate requirements related to:
- Actuarial value;
- Essential health benefits;
- Guaranteed issue;
- Community rating;
- Waiting periods;
- Preventive health services (including contraception); and
- Medical loss ratios.
Does NOT allow non-compliant plans to waive or eliminate requirements related to a single risk pool, which some conservatives may consider both potentially unworkable—as it will be difficult to combine non-community-rated plans and community-rated coverage into one risk pool—and unlikely to achieve significant premium reductions. Also does NOT allow non-compliant plans to waive or eliminate requirements related to annual and lifetime limits, or coverage for “dependents” under age 26—which some conservatives may view as an incomplete attempt to provide consumer freedom and choice.
States that non-compliant coverage shall not be considered “creditable coverage” for purposes of the continuous coverage/waiting period provision. Allows HHS to increase the minimum actuarial value of plans above 58 percent if necessary to allow compliant plans to be continued to offered in an area where non-compliant plans are available.
Uses $70 billion in Stability Fund dollars to subsidize high-risk individuals in states that choose the “consumer freedom” option—a provision that some conservatives may be concerned will effectively legitimize a perpetual bailout fund for insurers in connection with the “consumer freedom” option. Also appropriates $2 billion in funds for state regulation and oversight of non-compliant plans.